First, to every veteran and military family in Clovis, Portales, and around Cannon AFB: thank you. Today is Veterans Day, and as a military spouse I know the sacrifices behind it aren't just the service member's. They belong to the whole household.

It's also a week when a lot of buyers have been texting me the same question. Last Friday I wrote that mortgage rates had eased for several weeks and that the October inflation report could move things again. On Tuesday, it did.

What happened

  • Inflation ran hotter than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% economists expected. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, also came in above forecasts.
  • Rates reacted the same day. According to Mortgage News Daily, the average 30-year fixed rate posted its largest one-day jump in more than a month, ending a calm stretch of slow improvement. It's still below the highs we saw in early October, but the recent dip took a real step back.
  • A December Fed hike now looks very likely. CNBC reported that traders are fully pricing in a quarter-point increase at the Fed's December 8-9 meeting, and some are now talking about a bigger move.
  • Buyers had just started coming back. The Mortgage Bankers Association said applications rose last week as rates fell, with especially strong growth in FHA and VA purchase applications.

Why this matters even though the Fed doesn't set mortgage rates

The Fed controls a short-term rate. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond yields, and those yields react to inflation news right away. That's why mortgage pricing moved on Tuesday instead of waiting for December. By the time the Fed actually meets, much of what markets expect may already be baked into lender pricing. That cuts both ways: if upcoming inflation numbers cool off, rates can improve even with a hike on the calendar.

What I'd do if you're buying here this winter

  • Don't try to time the bottom. Nobody knows exactly where rates go from here, me included. Buy when the home and the budget work for your family, not because of one headline.
  • Get pre-approved now. When rates bounce from day to day, knowing what you qualify for keeps you from falling in love with a house that doesn't fit.
  • Have a rate lock plan. If you're under contract or close to it, let's talk about lock timing before the next big data releases and the December meeting, so a single bad day doesn't catch you off guard.
  • Look past the headline average. National averages are built around conventional loans. VA and FHA loans are priced differently, and the MBA noted FHA rates have recently been running below conforming rates. For VA buyers at Cannon AFB, no monthly mortgage insurance is part of the picture too.
  • Use a slower market to your advantage. Higher rates tend to cool competition. Seller concessions or a temporary buydown may be worth discussing, depending on the loan program and the deal.

The bottom line

This week was a reminder that rates can change fast. A plan you build ahead of time beats a reaction you make under pressure. Whether you have PCS orders to Cannon, you're renting in Clovis and ready to own, or you're looking at a rural property outside Portales, I'm happy to walk through your options and keep an eye on the market for you.

Reach out anytime and we'll put together a plan that fits your timeline. This post is general information, not a commitment to lend. Loans are subject to credit approval, and rates and program guidelines can change at any time.